Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of America's Welfare Revolution (Printer-Friendly Format)

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Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of America's Welfare Revolution

General Information

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Evaluator(s)	Center for the Study of Business and Government, Baruch College
Investigator(s)	June O'Neill (Center for the Study of Business and Government, Baruch College) M. Anne Hill (Department of Economics, Queens College)
Sponsor(s)	Not applicable
Funder(s)	Manhattan Institute
Subcontractor(s)	Not applicable

Domain	Income Security/TANF
Status	Operational with Findings
Duration	Jan 2000 - Jul 2002
Type	Policy Analysis
Goal	See project description
Program/Policy Description	A comprehensive study of the effect of the 1996 welfare reform act on an array of outcomes--welfare participation, employment, income and economic well-being, marriage, childbearing, and ultimately whether dependency has declined and whether the poor have been gaining or losing ground
Notes	No notes reported.

Last Updated	04/22/03
Type of Summary	Reviewed
External Reviewer(s)	June O'Neill (Center for the Study of Business and Government, Baruch College)
Contact(s)	June O'Neill (June_oneill@baruch.cuny.edu) Center for the Study of Business and Government, Baruch College 17 Lexington Ave. (T) (212) 802-5720 (F) (212) 802-5722
Publications Department	Dolores Garrigo (dgarrigo@manhattan-institute.org) Manhattan Institute 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, 2nd Floor (T) not reported (F) (212)-684-0832

Populations Studied

Target Population	Recipients/participants/clients Former recipients ("leavers") Single parent families Low-income households
Subgroups Analyzed	Minority populations
Sample Size and Unit	First study: primarily all single mothers ages 18-44 with children under age 18 in the annual March supplement to the U.S. Current Population Survey from 1983-2000. Sample size approximately 80,000. Unit of analysis is individual. Forthcoming studies also use SIPP, the NLSY, and other data sources.

Sites Studied

Nationwide

Program Components, Policies, and Activities Evaluated

Program requirements

Work requirement

Employment activities

Employment Activities - misc.

Time limits

Time Limits - misc.

Variation in program components across sites?	No
Notes on program components	N/A

Outcomes Assessed

Employment

Job attainment

Types of Studies

Type	Impact Study (Quasi-experiment with non-equivalent control groups)
Aim	To study changes in welfare and work participation among single mothers since the implementation of welfare reform.

Data Sources

Source	Survey
Title	U.S. Current Population Survey, Public Use Files of the March Supplements
Sample Characteristics/Data Collection	80,000 women aged 18-44 with chidren under 18 years
Sites	Nationwide
Response Rate/Attrition Notes	N/A
Additional Execution Notes	U.S. Current Population Survey is a large, nationally representative survey of American households conducted monthly.

Findings Available

Interim Impact Findings
Interim Descriptive/Analytical Findings

Findings

07/01/01: Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of America's Welfare Revolution: Measuring the Impact of Welfare Reform on Welfare and Work

Interim Impact Findings:

The number of families on welfare declined by 50 percent between the passage of welfare reform legislation in August 1996 and September 2000.
A majority of the women heading these families have gone to work, contrary to the of fears many welfare reform critics. The proportion of single mothers who work has increased dramatically since welfare reform, nearly matching the proportion leaving welfare.
Regression results indicate that TANF accounts for more than half of the decline in welfare participation and more than 60 percent of the rise in employment among single mothers.
Although the booming economy of the later 1990s contributed both to the decline in welfare and to the rise in work participation among single mothers, that contribution was relatively minor compared to the contribution of TANF, accounting for less than 20 percent of either change.
The decline in welfare participation was largest for groups of single mothers with children under seven years of age, high school dropouts, black and Hispanic single mothers, and those who have never been married.
Employment gains have also been the largest among disadvantaged single mothers: mothers who have never been married, mothers between the ages of 18 and 29, mothers with children under seven years of age, high school dropouts, and black and Hispanic mothers.
TANF’s beneficial effects extend even to the most disadvantaged portions of the welfare-eligible population. TANF accounts for 40 percent of the increase in work participation among single mothers who are high school dropouts; 71 percent of the increase in work participation among 18-29 year old single mothers; and 83 of the increase in work participation among black single mothers.

03/01/03: Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of America's Welfare Revolution: Gaining Ground, Moving Up: The Change in the Economic Status of Single Mothers Under Welfare Reform

Interim Descriptive/Analytical Findings

Between the passage of welfare reform (1996) and 2001 - a recession year- the poverty rate of single-mother families declined by about 20%, from 41.9% in 1996 to 33.6%, slightly above the record low for single mothers attained in 2000.
The reduction in poverty was particularly large among those groups of single mothers who have always had the highest levels of poverty and welfare participation- blacks and Hispanic women, never married mothers and high school dropouts.
The proportion of single mothers who worked at all during the year increased rapidly, from 76% in 1996 to 82% in 2001.
Welfare reform was the largest single factor responsible for the rise in single mothers' work participation, accounting for more than 40% of the increase between mid-1996 and the end of 2001.
Single mothers' own cash incomes rose 21% between 1995 and 2000, even after averaging in those reported zero cash income.
Total household income (including non-cash benefits) increased significantly among those mothers who left welfare since 1996.
Single mothers, on average, earned $11.60 per hour in 2001, considerably more than the minimum wage.
Poverty drops steadily for women who leave welfare and the poverty decline grows with years since leaving.
In addition, among single mothers who left welfare after 1994, each additional year worked between 1994 and 1998 was associated with an increase in hourly pay of about 2% and each additional year with the same employer increased pay by another 1%.

Recommendations

Existing Publications

07/01/01	Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of America's Welfare Revolution: Measuring the Impact of Welfare Reform on Welfare and Work	Manhattan
03/01/03	Gaining Ground? Measuring the Impact of America's Welfare Revolution: Gaining Ground, Moving Up: The Change in the Economic Status of Single Mothers Under Welfare Reform	CSBG-BC