“But caution is in order. First, FTP’s results were not uniformly positive. It appears that a group of families lost income as a result of FTP, and the program generated negative effects for some groups of children. In addition, the follow-up was too short to allow final conclusions to be drawn about the families whose benefits were canceled at the time limit: Their complex coping strategies may or may not be sustainable over the long term, particularly if the labor market weakens. Finally, while there is little evidence that FTP made a large number of families much worse off, the program also has not yielded the dramatic positive impacts that were anticipated by some proponents of time limits during the national welfare reform debate.

“Second, it is critical to consider the unique circumstances under which FTP operated: far from any large city, in a healthy economic climate, with ample resources for staff and services. Moreover, some recipients facing very serious barriers to employment (for example, health problems) were exempted from the time limit, and those who were cut off lost relatively little money (because Florida’s welfare grant levels are low). These circumstances may have left little room for FTP to achieve large positive effects (because most of the AFDC group left welfare without the program), but they also reduced the chances that the program would cause serious harm to vulnerable families.”